When to use it
A useful fit
Use it to challenge a forecast and discuss which performance pattern is likely to persist.
Know the limits
Do not select the most reassuring formula without a delivery explanation. Re-estimate the remaining work when the baseline is no longer credible.
How to use it
- Check the baseline, completion rules and completeness of actual costs.
- Choose an assumption: performance continues, the rest follows plan, or a fresh bottom-up estimate is needed.
- Compare the forecast with the authorised budget and explain the causes and options to the decision owner.
Worked example
A project attributes an overrun to a one-off setup problem. The manager compares a forecast that assumes planned efficiency from now on with one that continues current efficiency, then tests the claim against the remaining work packages.
Illustrative scenario by fannarmaximus; not an official exam question.
Common pitfalls
A computed forecast is not a replacement for knowledge of contracts, remaining scope and dependencies.
Attribution & sources
Common earned-value forecasting practice; the explanation and example are by fannarmaximus.
The citations below identify authoritative references for this topic. They do not imply endorsement or reproduce the bodies’ competence lists.
- Morris, P. W. G. (2013). Reconstructing Project Management. Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell. ISBN 9780470659076. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118536698
- Project Management Institute (2025). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide), Eighth Edition, and The Standard for Project Management. Newtown Square, PA: PMI®. ISBN 9781628258295.