Break-even probability
Find the residual probability at which a response breaks even in expected monetary terms.
Formula · Guide · Applied
Make uncertainty explicit
Describe events, consequences and assumptions before assigning numbers.
Understand
Compare the cost of a risk response
Make the no-action option explicit, then compare complete expected costs. Keep financial efficiency separate from whether the worst case is tolerable.
Method · Calculator + guide · Applied
Expected monetary value
Combine an estimated probability and impact while keeping the full downside visible.
Formula · Guide · Applied
Net value of a risk response
Compare a paid risk response with accepting the original financial exposure.
Formula · Guide · Applied
Probability-impact screening
Use explicitly defined probability and consequence categories to prioritise discussion of uncertain events.
Reference · Guide · Foundation
Responses to threats and opportunities
Choose an action, an owner and a fallback for an uncertain event.
Model · Guide · Foundation
Sensitivity analysis
Find which uncertain inputs can change a decision or forecast most.
Reference · Guide · Foundation
Risk-adjusted cost and schedule forecasts
Connect uncertainty in activity durations, dependencies and costs rather than applying an unexplained contingency percentage.
Reference · Guide · Advanced
Calculate
Expected payoff and decision branches
Evaluate one set of mutually exclusive outcomes before comparing decisions.
Tool · Calculator + guide · Applied
Independent risk exposure
Sum expected losses and estimate variation under independent event assumptions.
Tool · Calculator + guide · Applied
Triangular cost simulation
Explore a sum of uncertain cost components with reproducible simulated percentiles.
Tool · Calculator + guide · Advanced
Original sources
NIST AI Risk Management Framework
Find an authoritative reference when a project develops or adopts AI.
Framework · Source pointer · Foundation