Assumptions and method
Assumes independent triangular inputs. It is not a schedule-network simulator or evidence that the supplied ranges are calibrated. Percentiles are estimates, not guarantees.
Test a scenario
Use the result in a decision
Describe events, consequences and assumptions before assigning numbers.
Assumes independent triangular inputs. It is not a schedule-network simulator or evidence that the supplied ranges are calibrated. Percentiles are estimates, not guarantees.
Set a baseline and change one assumption to compare outcomes.
A worked example
Follow the fixed teaching example
- For each trial, draw one value from each triangular component and add them.
- Repeat 10,000 times using seed 42, sort the totals, and read the reported percentiles. These are simulation results conditional on the inputs and independence assumptions.
These illustrative inputs describe a project scenario, not a published benchmark. All monetary inputs use the same currency and price basis.
- One cost component per row: minimum, mode, maximum
- 8000, 10000, 14000 3000, 5000, 9000
- Reproducible seed
- 42
- Mean of 10,000 simulations
- 16,350.4965
- Median
- 16,271.325
- 80th percentile
- 17,894.3931
- 95th percentile
- 19,463.0992
Interpret the output only within the assumptions above. Changing the inputs changes the result; it does not validate the inputs.
Source & credit
Standard estimating practice; the cited guide documents use rather than claiming invention.
GAO: Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide
This is independently written code and explanation of the underlying method. The linked publication, its diagrams and its trademarks remain its owner’s material; no permission to reuse them is implied.