Before you start: Use the same scope and units for all estimates.

Try it

Optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations are 2, 5 and 14 days. What is the PERT-style mean?

Your reasoning, assumptions and units:

Apply it to your work

Describe a comparable situation. What evidence would you need before using this reasoning to make a decision?

Your example and next check:

Answer and reasoning

(2 + 4 × 5 + 14) ÷ 6 = 6 days. The triangular mean is 7 days. Both depend on assumptions and neither is a guaranteed finish date.

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